A low-pressure area is expected to form over the South-East Bay of Bengal and the adjacent Andaman Sea in next two days, which could likely render conditions suitable for the advance of the 2020 South-West monsoon into parts of South-East Bay, the South Andaman Sea and the Nicobar Islands around May 16.
This is roughly the normal time for the monsoon onset over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the farthest outpost in the territorial waters to receive the rains. The normal sequence suggests that by mid-May, the monsoon enters the Maldives (the Arabian Sea arm), followed by Myanmar (the Bayarm) and Sri Lanka, before hitting mainland India along the Kerala coast around June 1. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will, over the next few days, announce the date of onset over Kerala.
Pre-monsoon showers
In the meantime, the pre-monsoon thunderstorm continues unabated over the South, East and North-East of the country even as an approaching western disturbance would create volatile weather over North-West India. The IMD has predicted scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers over the hills (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and the plains during May 13-15. Isolated thunderstorms accompanied with hail, gusty winds and lightning are also likely during the same period.
A typical pre-monsoon trough/wind discontinuity (where opposing winds meet) would cause isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers over Central India and the South Peninsula for next four days. Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning and gusty winds (30-40 km/hr) are also likely over the region. Heavy rainfall is indicated for Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep during May 15-16. Squally weather is likely over Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during May 14-16.
East and North-East
The North-Eastern States too may witness scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers during the next five days. Isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers are likely over adjoining Eastern States during this period. There could be isolated thundersqualls and heavy rain over Assam and Meghalaya on May 13 and gusty winds, lightning and occasional heavy rainfall over the rest of the region during these five days, the IMD said.
